全國(guó)腫瘤防止研究辦公室、國(guó)家腫瘤登記中心陳萬(wàn)青主任帶領(lǐng)其團(tuán)隊(duì)開(kāi)展的一項(xiàng)我國(guó)癌癥患病率的研究，其結(jié)果最近在線發(fā)表在歐洲的Cancer Letters雜志，系我國(guó)首次發(fā)布我國(guó)居民癌癥患病數(shù)據(jù)。結(jié)果顯示，我國(guó)5年內(nèi)診斷的癌癥患者目前尚存活的人數(shù)估計(jì)為749萬(wàn)，其中男性患者368萬(wàn)，女性患者381萬(wàn)。女性乳腺癌患者最多，達(dá)102萬(wàn)，其次是結(jié)直腸癌，肺癌，胃癌和食管癌，這5個(gè)常見(jiàn)癌癥占總數(shù)的56.1%.城市中每10萬(wàn)人中就有666個(gè)人5年中診斷為癌癥，這個(gè)數(shù)字在農(nóng)村是10萬(wàn)分之440.

    以往癌癥負(fù)擔(dān)經(jīng)常用到的是癌癥發(fā)病率。 癌癥發(fā)病率一般用作描述癌癥的分布特征，通過(guò)比較不同人群的發(fā)病率來(lái)幫助確定可能的病因，探討發(fā)病因素，提出病因假說(shuō)，評(píng)價(jià)防止措施的效果。癌癥患病率， 也稱(chēng)現(xiàn)患率，是指某特定時(shí)間內(nèi)總?cè)丝谥邪┌Y新舊病例之和所占的比例。對(duì)慢性病進(jìn)行現(xiàn)況調(diào)查，患病率是較常用的指標(biāo)?；疾÷释ǔＳ脕?lái)表示疾病的發(fā)生或流行情 況，可為醫(yī)療設(shè)施規(guī)劃，估計(jì)醫(yī)院床位周轉(zhuǎn)，衛(wèi)生設(shè)施及人力的需要量，醫(yī)療質(zhì)量的評(píng)估和醫(yī)療費(fèi)用的投入等提供科學(xué)的依據(jù)。

    我國(guó)以人群為基礎(chǔ)的腫瘤監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)逐步完善，越來(lái)越多的數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果在癌癥控制政策制定和癌癥研究中發(fā)揮著重要作用。此次研究使用了我國(guó)最新的177個(gè)腫瘤登記點(diǎn)的發(fā)病數(shù)據(jù)和生存率數(shù)據(jù)，通過(guò)模型計(jì)算得到較為準(zhǔn)確的現(xiàn)患情況。

    National estimates of cancer prevalence in China, 2011

    Rongshou Zheng Hongmei Zeng Siwei Zhang Tianhui Chen Wanqing Chen

    Published Online: October 09, 2015

    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.canlet.2015.10.003

    Highlights

    The first systematic estimation of cancer prevalence in China.

    We estimated that about 7.49 million persons alive in China had received a diagnosis of cancer within the previous five years in 2011.

    Breast cancer in females and stomach cancer in males were the two most prevalent malignant diseases.

    The cancer burdens showed difference between urban areas and rural areas in China.

    Abstract

    Objective

    Little is known about nationwide cancer prevalence in China. This paper aimed at assessing5-year cancer prevalence in China for 25 major cancers.

    Materials and methods

    Incidence data were estimated using data from 177 cancer registries and covering 175 million populations. Survival data from 17 cancer registries diagnosed during 2003-2005 and followed until31December2010.Standardizedprotocols for data collection and validation were adopted. Cancer prevalence for 25 major sites was estimated from year-specific incidence rates and survival probabilities according to standardized formula.

    Results

    Estimated 5-year prevalence for all cancers combined in 2011 in China was 7.49 million （3.68 million for men and 3.81 million for women）。 Cancer prevalence estimates for 5-year varied by cancer sites, ranging from 11.9 thousands for testicular cancer to 1.02 million for women breast cancer. Those most prevalent five cancers （breast, colorectal, lung stomach and esophageal cancers） covered 56.1% of cancer burden in China. The proportion for 5-year prevalence was higher in urban areas compared to rural areas （666 per 100,000 versus 440 per 100,000）， while cancer prevalence estimates were higher for women compared to men, with the men/women ratio of 5-year cancer prevalence reaching 0.96.

    Conclusions

    This paper provides the first systematic **ysis on 5-year cancer prevalence for 25 major cancers in China in 2011, which may serve as a baseline for assessment of the overall effectiveness of cancer health care. The huge number of cancer survivors requires resource allocation to improve health care programs and primary prevention, especially in rural areas.